On Monday we began talking about the magnitude of the President’s victory and the furious attempt by pro-abortion forces to blur or obscure the clear lessons of his magnificent victory. Today we'll have a go at explaining the considerable impact the abortion issue had on the outcome and also try to tease out the abortion component of the much discussed moral values. Hint: in both cases, abortion was very important.
As you know, there has been a running controversy over what the 22% of voters meant who said “moral values†in response to the question, Which one issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?" Alas, as a result, insufficient attention has been paid to more straightforward documentation of how the single-issue abortion voter affected the outcome.
We’ve talked about it some previously, but those basic outlines need further amplification. There are two aspects: the general impact of abortion on voting patterns and the more stringent direct impact.
A whopping 42% of voters in a post-election Wirthlin Worldwide poll said yes to the question, “Generally speaking, did the abortion issue affect the way you voted in today’s election?†Candidates who opposed abortion received 25% while 13% voted for candidates who support abortion. This yielded a 12-point net increment for pro-life candidates.
Getting more specific, respondents were asked, “Which of the following was most important to you?†How many chose abortion out of a list of eighteen choices? Wirthlin reported 8%.
Of those 6% voted for President Bush while only 2% voted for Sen. Kerry. This yielded a net “most important†issue increment for Bush of 4%.
In some ways more important, 9% picked abortion as the most important issue in the 13 “high activity states,†which included “presidential battleground†states and those with a closely-contested pro-life vs. pro-abortion U.S. Senate race. Of those, 8% voted for Bush while only 1% cast ballots for Kerry. President Bush was the beneficiary of a huge 7% increment in crucially important states.
One last dimension that we need to know in advance of further discussion. In the most stringent test of “single issue†voting, Wirthlin also asked respondents an open-ended “what was the main reason you voted for President?†question. Six percent volunteered “his position on abortion.†How did their votes break?
Of that category of voters, 5% voted for President Bush as contrasted with only 1% for Sen. Kerry. The President enjoyed a 4% net “most important†issue increment. So, collectively, what do all these numbers mean?
In a thoughtful analysis that appears in the November issue of the "pro-life newspaper of record," NRLC Executive Director Dr. David N, O’Steen drew this conclusion: “Using this variety of tests, the poll shows that the nationwide net increment gained by President Bush because of his pro-life position was more than the President’s margin of victory in a number of close states, including Florida and Ohio, as well as his overall margin of victory in the nationwide popular vote.â€
It will be of inestimable value to you in the months to come if you memorize that conclusion.
See you tomorrow.
Decoding the Post-Election Spin Battle
Part Two
On Monday we began talking about the magnitude of the President’s victory and the furious attempt by pro-abortion forces to blur or obscure the clear lessons of his magnificent victory. Today and tomorrow we’ll have a go at explaining the considerable impact the abortion issue had on the outcome and also try to tease out the abortion component of the much discussed “moral values.†Hint: in both cases, abortion was very important.
As you know, there has been a running controversy over what the 22% of voters meant who said “moral values†in response to the question, “Which one issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?" Alas, as a result, insufficient attention has been paid to more straightforward documentation of how the single-issue abortion voter affected the outcome.
We’ve talked about it some previously, but those basic outlines need further amplification. There are two aspects: the general impact of abortion on voting patterns and the more stringent direct impact.
A whopping 42% of voters in a post-election Wirthlin Worldwide poll said yes to the question, “Generally speaking, did the abortion issue affect the way you voted in today’s election?†Candidates who opposed abortion received 25% while 13% voted for candidates who support abortion. This yielded a 12-point net increment for pro-life candidates.
Getting more specific, respondents were asked, “Which of the following was most important to you?†How many chose abortion out of a list of eighteen choices? Wirthlin reported 8%.
Of those 6% voted for President Bush while only 2% voted for Sen. Kerry. This yielded a net “most important†issue increment for Bush of 4%.
In some ways more important, 9% picked abortion as the most important issue in the 13 “high activity states,†which included “presidential battleground†states and those with a closely-contested pro-life vs. pro-abortion U.S. Senate race. Of those, 8% voted for Bush while only 1% cast ballots for Kerry. President Bush was the beneficiary of a huge 7% increment in crucially important states.
One last dimension that we need to know in advance of further discussion. In the most stringent test of “single issue†voting, Wirthlin also asked respondents an open-ended “what was the main reason you voted for President?†question. Six percent volunteered “his position on abortion.†How did their votes break?
Of that category of voters, 5% voted for President Bush as contrasted with only 1% for Sen. Kerry. The President enjoyed a 4% net “most important†issue increment. So, collectively, what do all these numbers mean?
In a thoughtful analysis that appears in the November issue of the "pro-life newspaper of record," NRLC Executive Director Dr. David N, O’Steen drew this conclusion: “Using this variety of tests, the poll shows that the nationwide net increment gained by President Bush because of his pro-life position was more than the President’s margin of victory in a number of close states, including Florida and Ohio, as well as his overall margin of victory in the nationwide popular vote.â€
It will be of inestimable value to you in the months to come if you memorize that conclusion.
See you tomorrow.
Decoding the Post-Election Spin Battle
Part Two
On Monday we began talking about the magnitude of the President’s victory and the furious attempt by pro-abortion forces to blur or obscure the clear lessons of his magnificent victory. Today and tomorrow we’ll have a go at explaining the considerable impact the abortion issue had on the outcome and also try to tease out the abortion component of the much discussed “moral values.†Hint: in both cases, abortion was very important.
As you know, there has been a running controversy over what the 22% of voters meant who said “moral values†in response to the question, “Which one issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?" Alas, as a result, insufficient attention has been paid to more straightforward documentation of how the single-issue abortion voter affected the outcome.
We’ve talked about it some previously, but those basic outlines need further amplification. There are two aspects: the general impact of abortion on voting patterns and the more stringent direct impact.
A whopping 42% of voters in a post-election Wirthlin Worldwide poll said yes to the question, “Generally speaking, did the abortion issue affect the way you voted in today’s election?†Candidates who opposed abortion received 25% while 13% voted for candidates who support abortion. This yielded a 12-point net increment for pro-life candidates.
Getting more specific, respondents were asked, “Which of the following was most important to you?†How many chose abortion out of a list of eighteen choices? Wirthlin reported 8%.
Of those 6% voted for President Bush while only 2% voted for Sen. Kerry. This yielded a net “most important†issue increment for Bush of 4%.
In some ways more important, 9% picked abortion as the most important issue in the 13 “high activity states,†which included “presidential battleground†states and those with a closely-contested pro-life vs. pro-abortion U.S. Senate race. Of those, 8% voted for Bush while only 1% cast ballots for Kerry. President Bush was the beneficiary of a huge 7% increment in crucially important states.
One last dimension that we need to know in advance of further discussion. In the most stringent test of “single issue†voting, Wirthlin also asked respondents an open-ended “what was the main reason you voted for President?†question. Six percent volunteered “his position on abortion.†How did their votes break?
Of that category of voters, 5% voted for President Bush as contrasted with only 1% for Sen. Kerry. The President enjoyed a 4% net “most important†issue increment. So, collectively, what do all these numbers mean?
In a thoughtful analysis that appears in the November issue of the "pro-life newspaper of record," NRLC Executive Director Dr. David N, O’Steen drew this conclusion: “Using this variety of tests, the poll shows that the nationwide net increment gained by President Bush because of his pro-life position was more than the President’s margin of victory in a number of close states, including Florida and Ohio, as well as his overall margin of victory in the nationwide popular vote.â€
It will be of inestimable value to you in the months to come if you memorize that conclusion.
See you tomorrow.
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